International ratings agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’, maintaining a Positive Outlook as the country continues its economic recovery and fiscal reforms.
According to Fitch, the upgrade reflects Ghana’s improving debt position, stronger economic growth, rising foreign reserves and ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts under the IMF-supported recovery programme. The agency believes the country’s macroeconomic stability has strengthened significantly over the past year.
The latest development marks another major milestone in Ghana’s recovery following the debt and balance-of-payments crisis that pushed the country into restructuring negotiations and economic reforms.
Debt Levels Expected to Fall Further
Fitch projects Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 46 per cent by 2027, below the average for countries within the same credit rating category. The agency attributed the expected decline to sustained fiscal discipline, strong GDP growth and the appreciation of the cedi.
The ratings agency also highlighted Ghana’s improved fiscal performance in 2025, supported by primary surpluses and lower debt servicing pressures.
Government efforts to maintain fiscal discipline are expected to continue, with Fitch forecasting Ghana to maintain a primary surplus target of 1.5 per cent of GDP in both 2026 and 2027.
External Reserves and Gold Exports Boost Confidence
Another key factor behind the upgrade was Ghana’s improving external liquidity position.
Fitch noted that Ghana’s international reserves increased sharply in 2025 and are projected to cover about 4.8 months of external payments by 2027, exceeding the average for similarly rated economies.
The agency also credited strong gold exports and current account surpluses for helping stabilise the economy. Ghana reportedly recorded a current account surplus equivalent to 8.2 per cent of GDP in 2025, driven largely by strong performance in the mining sector.
Inflation and Interest Rates Showing Improvement
Fitch further observed that Ghana’s inflation trend has improved significantly. Annual inflation slowed to 3.2 per cent in March 2026, the lowest recorded level since 1999, before edging slightly higher to 3.4 per cent in April.
The agency expects inflation to continue easing over the medium term, supported by the Bank of Ghana’s cautious monetary policy approach and recent policy rate cuts.
Meanwhile, benchmark lending conditions in Ghana continue to soften. The Ghana Reference Rate declined further in May 2026, reflecting improving liquidity conditions and easing inflationary pressures within the financial system.
Risks Still Remain
Despite the positive outlook, Fitch warned that Ghana still faces challenges, particularly high debt servicing costs and potential inflationary risks.
Interest payments are projected to consume around 20 per cent of government revenue through 2027, remaining significantly above the median for countries in the same rating category.
The agency also cautioned that fiscal slippages, weaker external reserves or renewed inflationary pressures could negatively impact Ghana’s credit profile in future.
However, Fitch indicated that sustained reforms, stronger reserves and continued debt reduction could support further upgrades over the coming years.
Source: graphic.com.gh