Fitch Solutions expect Ghana’s inflation to remain on a downward trajectory through the second half of 2025, underpinned by a stronger exchange rate.
It has also revised down its average inflation forecasts for Ghana to 15.4 per cent in 2025 and 12.2 per cent in 2026, from 17.1 and 13.9 per cent previously.
According to the UK based firm, the adjustments follow a sharper-than-expected decline in headline inflation in June, which fell to 13.7 per cent year-on-year from 18.4 per cent in May 2025, its lowest level since December 2021.
“The drop in price pressures reflects the cedi’s 50 per cent appreciation against the dollar in April and May alongside a decline in global energy prices amid uncertainty surrounding US trade policy,” it added.
Furthermore, it pointed out that subdued global energy prices and tighter fiscal policy would further support the disinflation process.
“While oil prices briefly spiked during the Iran-Israel war in June 2025, they have since moderated following a ceasefire and remain well below 2024 levels amid weak global demand exacerbated by US tariffs and rising oil supply,” it said.
This, it explained would limit upside risks to Ghana’s near-term inflation outlook.
Meanwhile, the UK-based firm said the fiscal discipline under President John Mahama’s administration would take some demand out of the economy, which would have a cooling impact on price growth.
Indeed, the government expenditure fell to 4.0 per cent of GDP in Q1 2025, down from 4.9 per cent the same period of 2024.
BY TIMES REPORTER